Tuesday 1 April 2014

Case Solved (Finally: third time lucky!)



“Good evening Lord Todd.”
He was, as usual, sat in his favourite chair in the reception room with a large glass of whiskey.
“Oh, is it that time already? Alright, proceed with your report.”
“Not just a progress report this time Lord Todd. I have a good theory of who attacked Arthur Court and how they got away with it…until now.”
“Have you indeed! Well….?”
“Let me first outline what I see as the relevant facts and the conclusions I have drawn from them.” I got out my notepad with all the material I needed so carefully prepared.

“There are some facts and some conclusions I have either induced or deduced from them.
1.     Arthur Court was stabbed once. There were no signs of a struggle. Whoever attacked him did not make sure he was dead by stabbing him again for example. My induction from these facts is that this was not a frenzied attack.
2.     Arthur Court could not – according to the medical people – have screamed when attacked. Everyone heard a scream though: it was what made them all rush to Arthur’s room. My deduction from this is that the scream everyone heard was not made by Arthur when he was attacked. My induction from this is that everyone heard someone else’s scream or a recording of Arthur’s scream.
3.     There are cameras covering all the hallways, stairs and rooms apart from bedrooms. Analysis of the camera recordings against witness evidence yields no material discrepancies. My deduction from this is that the attacker did not access Arthur’s room via the hallways and stairs. My induction is that the attacker used another route, and the only other route is outside the building.
4.     There are motion activated security lights mounted on Todd Towers pointing out. There were no unexplained activations during the evening and night. There were no signs of unexplained activity around the outside of Todd Towers. The induction from this is that no-one approached Todd Towers by foot or in cars etc. And of course there were no unexplained helicopters hovering over Todd Towers either! As far as we know there are no unexplained tunnels. Given this, it is reasonable to assume that the attacker was already on the premises that night and did not need to gain access. If I’m wrong in this assumption then the whole theory is at significant risk of being wrong.
5.     There are fire escapes outside the building that connect every room directly or indirectly with every other room. There are 4 unexplained camera observations of movement along these structures around the time of the attack for the night in question. These 4 observations can be broken down in to 2 sets: 1 of an assumed figure moving along the side of the house and one of an assumed figure moving across the front of the house. The movement along the side of the house is of no interest because it was the wrong side of the house to Arthur’s room and there are no unexplained camera observations in the halls and stairs of the house (as there would need to be if someone did move along the side of the house outside, then came in and made their way to Arthur’s room). My induction is that the movement at the front of the house was the movement of the attacker as they crossed the front of the house and  entered Arthur’s room through the window at the front of the house in Arthur’s room. Furthermore, given that there were no unexplained internal movements in the house, find where this movement outside the house originated from and we will know from who was in that room who the attacker was.
6.     The room that the unexplained movement originated from is located at the front of the house. The rooms with windows at the front of the house are Brian’s, Danny’s, Frank’s…and yours.
7.     Brian Bates lost c£1,500 to Arthur playing cards and disliked Arthur. Brian had a motive but not a very strong one. Also, Brian is ex-army. Knows how to fight and has experience of it. You’d think and I have assumed that he’d know how to stab someone properly.
8.     Danny D’Eath wants a relationship with Erica…Arthur knew about this and could have told you. It is against the rules of employment for staff to have romantic relationships. Arthur had never said or hinted he would though. However, Danny may have known (from Erica) that Arthur may have liked Erica as well. Danny is also is ex-army. Knows how to fight and has experience of it. You’d think and I have assumed that he’d know how to stab someone properly.
9.     Frank Flowers grows and sells fruit and veg on your land but sells some for personal profit. Arthur knew and could have told you and threatened to. Also, Arthur teased Frank about his employment position (Arthur thought Frank has the lowest status job of the employees). In addition Arthur had (according to Frank) “landed” Frank in trouble a couple of times with you. Even putting these factors together hardly gives the strongest of motives.
10.  You, Lord Todd – well I thought you had no motive. But Ms D proved me wrong about that.”

“Really?”

“Yes, really.”

“And what possible motive could I have for trying to kill my own butler?”
“Ah – well, you see, that’s the point. We have all – me included – been assuming that the intention was to kill Arthur.”
“Silly me. Here I am thinking that sticking a knife in someone is an attempt to kill them.”
“This attack was planned. It was not a crime of passion with a fight, no-one came rushing from Arthur’s room covered in blood, and so on. On the contrary. Someone planned it. They put a lot of thought in about how to get in to Arthur’s room, attack him and escape unseen with the knife. And after all that thought and planning, they decided that a knife was the best weapon and that one strike would be enough. If it was me, and even if I chose to use a knife, I would make sure I had killed whoever it was. But, supposing the assumption is false: supposing that the intention was not to kill Arthur – quite the reverse in fact. Suppose the intention was to not kill Arthur?”
“If the intention was to not kill Arthur, best to not stick a knife in him?”
“Or best do it where you think it will look convincing as a serious attack but do no harm. Maybe a single strike to the sturnum – the breast bone? But then what happens if in the heat of the moment the strike is a couple of centimeters too low? Well, the knife might go in just below the sturnum…and might graze the heart.”
“So someone careflly planned and executed an attack with a knife on my butler to try and not kill him? That is your theory?”
“Yes.”

There was a long pause.

“And you know why?”
“I think I do…you had paid him £3,500 to let you attack him.”
There was another pause. A shorter one. “Actually I paid him to stab himself which he did in the end but I take your point – as he did mine, ha ha! But he was a clumsy idiot …and he was a greedy man.”
“And you are – as Ms D pointed out – paranoid.”
“Paranoid…or just careful?”
“Paranoid. Unless there is someone specifically out to get you that you have not told me about?”
“Just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.”
“So, you attacked Arthur – well, got him to attack himself! – and got me in not (as I had assumed, dammit!) to solve the case, but to do a thorough, objective review of your security and plug the gaps! You didn’t want me to solve the case, you wanted me to do a detailed analysis your security motivated by a crime to solve. Of course, you were interested in the security gaps you didn’t already know about, not the ones you exploited in this debacle. Good grief, you even spelt it out for me the first time we met. You told me:” I glanced at my notepad and found the relevant quote. “ I couldn't give a flying shit about the butler. What I "care" about is that someone got in to this house, put my butler in to a coma and got out without being detected despite the (as you have already observed and experienced) stringent security I have. That puts me at risk. I cannot and will not tolerate that. Yes find the bastard who did it and hang him/her/it out to dry with the pigs but what I want to know is how they did it - what holes in my security are there? How do I fix them? Are there any others?’” I shut the notebook. “You laid the motive out for me.”
“And what about the scream?”
“I don’t know…no evidence at all…but my theory (little more than a guess really) is that after the attack, the plan was to have Arthur scream at a point when you were in your room hiding the knife so that you had an alibi. To ensure a loud enough scream it was amplified – using the cd player. So you had recorded a scream on CD – maybe with Arthur’s help or just using a scream taken from the internet. After the stabbing, you set the CD player playing the CD and left the room with the knife. You had recorded silence for a few minutes before the scream to give you time to get back to your room, hide the knife, then you rushed with everyone else to Arthur’s room and – in the confusion – retrieved the CD. As it happens, Erica thinks she saw you doing that although she doesn’t realise that is what you were doing.”
“And what about the unexplained movement on the fire escapes at the side of the house?”
“I didn’t say ‘unexplained’ – I said of no interest. I strongly suspect we would find that Danny and Erica have been using that route for some time to keep their relationship secret…which we could verify if we questioned them, but I won’t as it is not relevant.”

Lord Todd smiled. “Very good. Better than I had planned for, obviously.” He paused, then looked up. “Although it seems to me you might have failed in achieving all of our agreed objectives as you called them.”
I referred to my notepad again.
“I don’t think so. Our agreed objectives, Lord Todd, were

1. increase knowledge on
1.1. How Mr Court's assailant gained entry to his room – done that! The assailant was always in Arthur’s room (it was his room after all) and his accomplice and employer used the bedroom windows and fire escapes.
2.1. How Mr Court's assailant left the premises – done that! Ditto 1.1.

2. Increase knowledge on
2.1. Who carried out the attack – done that! The answer is (I am embarrassed to say) the butler did it! But – indirectly – it was you.
2.2. Are they a threat to Lord Todd based on why they carried out the attack – done that! The answer is no.

3. increase knowledge about security issues/faults – done that! Your fire escapes are not adequately covered by cameras and your cameras should have night vision. Seems to me all objectives achieved.”

Lord Todd sighed and raised his eyes to the ceiling. I had been missing that reaction. “What an annoying person you are.” He sighed again. “So what now – call the police?”

It was my turn to sigh. “No. I will hand over all my information to them but I doubt they will be able to do much with it – it’s all circumstantial and the key points inductive, not deductive. Ultimately, your crime was to not call an ambulance as soon as Arthur stabbed himself but your no doubt highly expensive and highly efficient lawyers would be able to get you off that. But at least it will all be on record. Any more strange occurrences at Todd Towers will attract a LOT of attention.”
“Thank-you.”
For once I allowed my anger to show: “Don’t thank me. If I could have shopped you I would. Plus, you will pay double my fee and you will find the contract binding you to TripleA at triple the rate on your desk in the morning. Plus you will be making substantial payments to Arthur’s family and all your staff and tripling their salaries. Plus I will be watching you Lord Todd. You were instrumental in killing a man and you got away with it. I don’t like that.”
Lord Todd shrugged as if … as if he didn’t care … and there was probably a simple explanation for that!
“And what if I don’t do as you say?”
I shrugged back. He didn’t have the monopoly on not caring: “It’s a good story for the newspapers. ‘Paranoid Recluse Rock God Pays Butler to Kill Himself’ – something like that.”
“I’d call that blackmail.”
“I’d agree.”

Epilogue.
Things rarely turn out as I expect. Too many variables, too little deduction. And the assumptions! Oh how they had lead me astray: I had assumed that someone had tried to kill Arthur. Wrong. I had assumed that Lord Todd had wanted me to solve the case. Wrong. I had even assumed that there was a rational motive for the attack. Wrong, wrong, wrong!

There are no guarantees in life and there are no certainties in analysis. Analysis is hard, it can be a slog, and it can be deadly boring…but then look at the alternatives to analysis…try stumbling towards a solution by using trial and error, by blind guessing and blind, dumb luck, or by following some gobbledygook blarney method that relies on you trusting (assuming!) that it will work…now that would be murder!


… and finally…
If you have enjoyed this story and want to know more about business analysis, pick up free articles and training materials, maybe even contribute your own stuff, then head over to the author’s website at  www.smart-BA.com – everything is free (including a pdf of this blog in book format) and no need to register.

Monday 17 February 2014

Doing analysis - your turn!



The day came (sooner than anyone –especially Ms D – thought) that all the main components had been discovered. It was now a case of doing the analysis. So far we had completed stage 1 of analysis (breaking a problem down in to its component parts). It was now time for stage 2 (defining the relationships between those components). In this case the relationship of particular interest were
1.     Between Mr Arthur Court and his assailant (that is, who was the assailant?).
2.     Between the assailant and the security measures (that is, how the assailant committed the crime undetected)

The challenge for you now, dear reader, is perform stage 2 of the analysis. Below you will find the products of Ms D’s work and some other miscellaneous information. Put that together will the previous posts and you have all the relevant facts (and a whole load of irrelevant facts).

Now solve the problems listed above:
1.     Who is the assailant?
2.     How was the crime committed undetected?
If you can suggest the motive, even better!
Better still if you can also suggest changes to security measures that would prevent such an attack being repeated.

It would be most excellent to see how you worked out your conclusions and your assessment of whether they have been arrived at deductively and/or inductively (and how confident you are in the conclusions). If you need to make any assumptions (and you will whether you know it or not), just document them.

In a month or so I shall post the solution, but any solutions received in the meantime (via “comments” link at end of each post) will be posted beforehand for admiration, review and comment.

The game – as Sherlock Holmes (an analyst if ever there was one) would say – is afoot!


Ms D’s data.

Note: There are no cameras in bedrooms!

Who
Location
From
To
Doing what
Seen by camera?
LT
Dining Room
18:00
19:00
Having evening meal
Y
LT
Reception Room
19:00
23:15
Watching TV, some admin work and reading
Y
LT
Lord Todd’s bedroom
23:15
00:59
Getting ready for bed, reading in bed. Hears scream from upstairs, rushes to investigate.
N/A
GG
Corridors
00:59
01:01
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
LT
AC bedroom
01:01
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
LT
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
LT
LT Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
AC
Dining room and Kitchen
18:00
19:00
Serving Lord Todd’s evening meal
Y
AC
Kitchen
19:00
19:25
Assisting GG clear up and prepare for tomorrow’s breakfast.
Y
AC
Staff room
19:25
22:00
Watching TV, socialising.
Y
AC
AC bedroom
22:00
00:59
Getting ready for bed, in bed (asleep?), being attacked, screaming.
N/A
BB
Gate house and grounds
18:00
21:00
Guarding
Y
BB
Staff room
21:00
22:30
Watching TV, socialising.
Y
BB
BB bedroom
22:30
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping. Woken when hears scream from downstairs.
N/A
BB
Corridors
00:59
01:02
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
BB
AC bedroom
01:02
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
BB
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
BB
BB Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
CC
Gate house and grounds
18:00
21:00
Guarding
Y
CC
Staff room
21:00
22:30
Watching TV, socialising.
Y
CC
CC bedroom
22:30
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping. Woken when hears scream from downstairs..
N/A
CC
Corridors
00:59
01:02
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
CC
AC bedroom
01:02
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
CC
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
CC
CC Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
DD
Dining room
18:00
19:00
Tasting LT’s evening meal, protecting LT.
Y
DD
Reception room
19:00
23:15
Protecting LT.
Y
DD
LT’s bedroom
23:15
23:20
Inspection of LT’s bedroom
Y
DD
DD bedroom
23:20
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping, Woken when hears scream from across corridor.
N/A
DD
Corridors
00:59
01:01
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
DD
AC bedroom
01:01
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
DD
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
DD
DD Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
EE
Staff room
18:00
22:00
Eating evening meal, watching TV and socialising.
Y
EE
EE bedroom
22:00
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping, Woken when hears scream from across corridor..
N/A
EE
Corridors
00:59
01:00
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
EE
AC bedroom
01:00
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
EE
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
EE
EE Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
FF
Staff room
18:00
22:00
Eating evening meal, watching TV and socialising.
Y
FF
FF bedroom
22:00
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping, Woken when she hears scream from across the corridor.
N/A
FF
Corridors
00:59
01:02
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
FF
AC bedroom
01:02
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
FF
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
FF
FF Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A
GG
Kitchen
18:00
19:25
Preparing LT evening meal, clearing up and preparing for breakfast.
Y
GG
Staff room
19:25
21:30
Watching TV and socialising.
Y
GG
GG bedroom
21:30
00:59
Getting ready for bed, sleeping, Woken when hears scream from across the corridor.
N/A
GG
Corridors
00:59
01:02
Rushes through house to investigate.
Y
GG
AC bedroom
01:02
01:35
Investigating attack on AC, waiting for police
N/A
GG
Reception Room
01:40
03:30
Helping police with their enquiries
Y
GG
GG Bedroom
03:35
-
Sleeping
N/A

Camera sitings that could not be reasonably (in Ms D’s judgement) be accounted for by witness statements:
1.     Couple of sitings of various staff members going from their bedrooms to bathroom and back again. Not considered significant.
2.     11:20-11:22: Camera 1.b.iii Dark shadows (assumed to be person) moving along fire escape easterly direction. Unable to determine which route taken exactly – unable to conclusively state it was a person either. As the camera is pointed from the roof at the ground along the wall of the house it is difficult to be precise about details of movement on the fire escape.
3.     11:26-11:28: Camera 1.d.i Dark shadows (assumed to be person) moving along fire escape southerly direction. Unable to determine which route taken exactly – unable to conclusively state it was a person either. As the camera is pointed from the roof at the ground along the wall of the house it is difficult to be precise about details of movement on the fire escape.
4.     11:51-11:53: Camera 1.d.i Dark shadows (assumed to be person) moving along fire escape northerly direction. Unable to determine which route taken exactly – unable to conclusively state it was a person either. As the camera is pointed from the roof at the ground along the wall of the house it is difficult to be precise about details of movement on the fire escape.
5.     11:33-11:37: Camera 1.b.iii Dark shadows (assumed to be person) moving along fire escape westerly direction. Unable to determine which route taken exactly – unable to conclusively state it was a person either. As the camera is pointed from the roof at the ground along the wall of the house it is difficult to be precise about details of movement on the fire escape.

Miscellaneous information
1.     Arthur Court’s bedroom contained
a.     single bed
b.    wardrobe
c.     desk with laptop computer (and wireless internet), radio/cd player, desk light. Draws contained personal correspondence and general stationery
d.    desk chair
e.     arm chair
f.     small table with plasma TV on it
Note: the knife used in the attack was not found in the room and has not been found.
2.     External house security lights motion activated – motion sensors point out from house towards grounds.
3.     Medical opinion obtained from the hospital that Arthur Court was taken to is that having been stabbed and the blade having grazed his heart, Arthur would not (and could not) scream: his mind and body would have gone straight in to shock explaining the look on his face when found.
4.     There are fire escapes criss-crossing the front, sides and rear of the house connecting every first, second and attic room with the ground via weight driven drop down extensions from first floor (so they cannot be used to break in to the property!). Lord T’s concerns about risks extend far and wide! All employees are instructed that fire escapes can only be used in event of fire and there is a heavy fine or even dismissal for improper use.
5.     There was no evidence that any of the fire escapes had been extended down to ground level. Nor was there any evidence of unexplained footprints around the base of Todd Towers.
6.     A deposit of £3,500 was paid in to Arthur Court’s bank account the day he was attacked. The payee was a company solely owned by Lord Todd. It was BACS payment that had been initiated 3 days earlier. Lord Todd has declined to explain the reason for the payment saying it was an unconnected personal matter.
7.     External cameras are general purpose security cameras not equipped with infra-red or other night time viewing technology.
8.     Erica Echoes thinks she saw Lord Todd “doing something” by Arthur Court’s desk during the period everyone was in the room waiting for the police. She cannot be sure what (or even if) Lord Todd was doing.